Alternative Fact
Good morning from Newmarket. We are represented by three runners this afternoon, and I am looking forward to seeing how we get on.
Our first runner is Mudallel in the London Mile Final at Kempton at 3.15. If memory serves, he was balloted out of this race last year despite winning twice at Kempton, whereas this year he gets in despite having won nothing at the track! However, he has been in good form of late, winning and then going down narrowly at Chelmsford on his last two starts. The issue for him here is that we are going significantly up in class, as he has been carrying a high weight against inferior horses in 0-85 contests, and today he is a lower weighted horse against better rivals. Of course it makes life tougher, but it doesn’t necessarily count against him, as I think he could still run well granted a strong gallop and some luck in the run. The strong pace is a bit of a pre-requisite for him though - he is very unlikely to get involved if he doesn’t get that early gallop. Hakeem and Honey Man look hard to beat at the top of the betting, but I hope that we can get a nice position from stall 6, drop our head, and then make some places in the Kempton home straight, which suits him very well. Charlie Bishop is the man in the plate.
We then turn our attention to the 3.55 at Ascot, where Alternative Fact runs in the valuable Lavazza Handicap over a mile and a half. This will be an easier task than his last trip to Ascot, when he ran in the Gr.2 King Edward VII Stakes, but it is still a furiously competitive heat. First Eleven and Ghostwatch bring excellent handicap form to the table, and Midi and Fairlight might be anything. There are some reasons for hope for our horse though. He was competing at a higher level in amongst very good sorts earlier in the season, and has run two solid races in handicap company since. He was no match for Dancetaria at Newmarket last time out, but beat the rest nicely, and his close-up fifth at Sandown in July has worked out rather well. Although beaten only two and a quarter lengths, those on front of him included Alfarris, who has since won at Glorious Goodwood, Bathsheba Bay, who has since won at Windsor, and Pivoine, who has since won at the Ebor meeting. We actually got a pound drop for that, which was very fair, and are now ready to go back up in trip. As a son of Dalakhani out of a Halling mare, it was inevitable that we would try a mile and a half, but he was probably not quite ready for it earlier in the season. However, he is racing more professionally now, so it seems an appropriate moment to go back up in distance. Another note of caution would be really drying ground, but it looks as though Ascot are going to hold onto a nice surface. A tough, tough race, and maybe we are stepping back into warmer waters too quickly, but we are very much looking forward to seeing how Alternative Fact gets on, and he might have a small each way shout. Andrea Atzeni is in the saddle.
Finally we run Global Humor in the 5.35, also at Kempton. He was a promising sort last season that just hasn’t got it together as a three-year-old, for one reason or another. We are now creeping down the weights and we were keen to try him over seven-furlongs on the all-weather again. His last run at Newmarket was actually a step back in the right direction, but this is a very tough heat today. Whilst his 33/1 odds reflect his chances, we do hope to see some encouragement and learn a thing or two. Ed Greatrex takes the mount.
All the best,
Ed.