Valence
Good morning from Newmarket. A quiet day on the racing front – indeed we are set for a quiet week – as Valence in the 4.45 at Chelmsford is my only runner.
This very nicely bred two-year-old has run twice so far, looking very green over seven-furlongs on debut at Newmarket and then finishing a respectable third at Wolverhampton over an extended mile, albeit beaten quite some way by the winner. On the back of that encouraging performance we are stepping him up even further in distance to a mile and a quarter this afternoon, in the hope it may unearth some further improvement.
At face value, as a son of Oasis Dream out of my very smart miler Independence, a mile and a quarter so early in his career might seem quite a bold and surprising move. However, his most famous sibling Mount Nelson won a Grp-1 over a mile as a two-year-old, whilst Valence’s full-brother Monitor Closely also won over a mile at two and went on to finish third in the St Leger. So it is a family that lends more to stamina than speed, and Valence has the look of a slow-developing sort that might make up into a nice middle distance or staying handicapper next year.
Say The Word and Al Mikdam were second and third in a Wolverhampton novice last month, and both look promising and unsurprisingly dominate the market. L’Un Deux Trois and Mondain have also both shown distinct promise in warm-looking maidens, so our decision to go over the longer trip has led us into quite a tough contest. However, Valence took a major step forward from debut to second run, and a similar bit of progression should see him threatening the places. He has a small each way chance, and I hope to see some encouragement for next year in his performance.
All the best,
Ed.